Speculation has a field day when there's not much going on.
Well-known industry figures like HousingWire's James Kleimann and National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun have recently put out some ideas and predictions that have the industry thinking…and hoping. Kleimann took on the topic of loan officer and real estate agent productivity and compensation, while Yun served up some optimistic predictions at NAR's Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum. Kleimann examined some hard industry truths and floated some provocative points to ruminate on, while Yun gave a realistic assessment of where the market stands and why, and offered genuine hope within the bounds of his usual reserved economist stance.
In a recent Subscriber Digest piece, Kleimann took a novel look at the housing affordability issue. He noted that loan officers and real estate agents get paid based on the price of the real estate being traded and explored different compensation models. Kleimann based some of his suggestions on opinions collected from industry experts like Garth Graham of STRATMOR Group who point out realities like, 1) there are a lot of real estate agents who don't sell a lot of real estate, costing brokerages a great deal in various overhead costs, and 2) loan officer and other staff compensation on the lending side may need to be reimagined in order to keep companies lean, efficient and competitive. Sometimes evolution happens despite our will and wishes, but it is possible to voluntarily achieve some of the effects and efficiencies Kleimann suggests are necessary by leveraging your data.
Evaluating real estate agent production is simple and smart. You can use data to eliminate entire tiers of agents who aren't worth the time and effort of pursuing, but more importantly, you can drill down into the type and amount of production other agents are doing by transaction side, loan product, dollar amounts, and more. Accurate, current data helps you align your goals with the agent targets that can help you achieve them. The same is true when recruiting loan officers: InGenius data shows that the top 10% of loan officers have consistently done the majority of transactions from 2019 through 2024 - and that includes the heyday years of 2020 and 2021. Interestingly, the market share of the various production deciles stays consistent over that same 6-year period, revealing little change in loan officer habits and performance. The trick for companies looking to recruit best-fit loan officers is to use data insights to find out who aligns with your organization, who is coachable, and who can make a quantum leap under your brand and direction.
Moving on to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, he predicted the following in his recent speech at their Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: Existing home sales will increase by 6% in 2025 and by 11% in 2026, new-home sales will rise by 10% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026, the median home price will climb by 3% in 2025 and by 4% in 2026, mortgage rates will average 6.4% in the second half of 2025, and 6.1% in 2026. It's nice to see some double-digit increases for sales, but Yun didn't forecast any dramatic mortgage rate decreases. That said, two quotes from Yun's presentation are worth noting and considering. On the economic side, Yun said, "Only the tariffs' impact is being discussed. What about other forces that are less discussed? There are other forces out there; for example, the shelter component is the biggest weight to the price component. The shelter cost is already coming down from its recent cyclical peak, and it's trending downward." Downward-trending shelter cost is promising; but Yun's use of "sunny" language was also surprisingly encouraging: "There's a light at the end of the tunnel based on recent rises in mortgage applications to buy a home. Moreover, a solid majority of renters expressed desire to own a home."
Whether or not Yun's upbeat predictions materialize or if Kleimann's industry compensation revamp ideas gain traction, now is a great time to do a data deep dive and refresh on your own business, your current and prospective loan officers' databases, and your agent and builder partners. The best way to capitalize on a market upswing is to have your data house in order and your strategy in place.
Jeff Walton is CEO of InGenius. With over 35 years in home mortgage and as a CEO and President of large national mortgage companies, Jeff is focused on helping the industry achieve high performance using actionable intelligence. Interested in learning more? Book an intro call with InGenius Data.