From a business standpoint, a lot of people couldn't wait for 2023 to end. Then the industry mood lifted considerably in the fourth quarter when the Fed signaled future rate cuts. Economists from most of the major trade organizations issued predictions for a 2024 upturn, mortgage rates began a steady drop from October's 7.79% high reported by Freddie Mac and the good news ushered the new year in on an optimistic note. As of the final days of first quarter, the Fed hasn't budged, mortgage rates have been climbing again and many are wondering when we can expect this elusive upturn. That's a reasonable question; but housing professionals should use this time to get in position to take advantage of more favorable conditions.
We know that the refi aspect of the market has been down; the actual numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association show that refinances dropped from 59% of originations in 2021 to 19% in 2023. Still, recent InGenius data shows that there are over 1.6 million mortgages at or above 7%:
A drop in rates is an obvious catalyst for increased refi activity, but home price appreciation could also motivate homeowners. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. home prices grew 6.5% y-o-y between Q422 and Q423. And Fannie Mae's survey of market experts predict price growth to be 3.8% for 2024, 3.4% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. A lower interest rate and some cash out with a similar or lower payment is a great messaging point to stir up borrower interest. Companies, teams and individual loan officers will certainly be reaching out to their databases to help their past clients take advantage of potential savings or cash-out opportunities when they arise.
The Fed signaled three rate cuts for the year and the calendar says it's spring, but the housing market seems to be lumbering slowly toward the starting blocks, even with a nice 9.5% bump in existing home sales in February. It's a good time to find and court loan officers and real estate partners with the contacts that are likely to be good refi candidates this year. InGenius data can help you identify these people, drill down on past performance, and gauge near-future potential in your current market service area or an MSA you'd like to expand into.
Jeff Walton is CEO of InGenius. With over 35 years in home mortgage and as a CEO and President of large national mortgage companies, Jeff is focused on helping the industry achieve high performance using actionable intelligence. Interested in learning more? Book an intro call with InGenius Data.